EUR/CHF still seen at 1.15 in 12-month – Danske Bank

Senior Analyst at Danske Bank Christin Tuxen expects the cross to head towards the 1.15 area in a year’s view.

Key Quotes

“With the ECB moving away from the exchange/interest rate channel for easing, the pressure on the SNB from EUR weakness is fading”.

“EUR/CHF has moved to levels where the SNB is more comfortable that the Swiss export industry is able to cope and recent communication from the SNB suggests that the central bank is less determined to bring about outright CHF weakness, and thus willing to accept EUR/CHF staying at these levels for now”.

“Unless EUR/CHF takes a significant dive (which could happen in the event of a Brexit), we think the SNB will stay put for now”.

“EUR/CHF has seemingly started to pencil in some Brexit risks and could move lower still ahead of the UK referendum; we still target 1.08 in 3M. Longer term, we continue to expect fundamentals to support a higher EUR/CHF and keep our 6M and 12M forecasts unchanged at 1.12 and 1.15, respectively”.