SEK expected to appreciate further – Danske Bank

Stefan Mellin, Senior Analyst at Danske Bank, sees the Swedish krona gathering further traction in the medium term.

Key Quotes

“EUR/SEK is close to our 1-3M target at 9.20 and the downward bias that we argued for last month remains very much in place”.

“We have opted to lower our forecast profile further though, given that we no longer expect an extended QE programme from the Riksbank in April at the same time as the fundamental backdrop still suggests the pair should move lower over time”. 

“Some Board members have said that they will be more tolerant to SEK appreciation over and above forecast going forward”.

“In our view, the risk of fx interventions has diminished. We see EUR/SEK at 9.10 in 1-3M (9.20), 9.00 in 6M (9.10) and 8.90 in 12M (9.10)”.