Polish Zloty seen picking up pace medium term – Danske Bank

Jakob Christensen, Head of EM Research at Danske Bank, believes the Polish currency could appreciate further in a 6-month horizon.

Key Quotes

“The new monetary policy committee of the NBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% at the 6 April meeting, despite continuing weak inflation developments in the economy”.

“The MPC signalled the present interest rate level was adequate, but Governor Belka mentioned that the issue of lower policy rates had been raised by some MPC members”.

“We think that the relatively strong growth in the Polish economy, stretched labour market and high capacity utilisation as well as recovery in the oil price will keep a floor under policy rates. As economic growth picks up speed, we expect NBP to move to a tightening bias from late H2 and onwards”.

“We expect EUR/PLN to weaken to around 4.35 in 1M as the UK referendum draws closer”.

“On 3M-2M horizons we expect the PLN to strengthen to 4.30, 4.22 and 4.15, respectively, as strong economic fundamentals will continue to support the PLN as political uncertainty dissipates and the global environment improves”.