31 Mar 2016
US: Stronger ADP report confirms robust labour market conditions - ANZ
Research Team at ANZ, notes that the ADP report for March showed jobs rose 200k - a touch higher than expectations (195k) and confirming that the labour market remains robust.
Key Quotes
“Revisions to February were minor at -9k, taking this measure of jobs growth in the month to 205k. However, Yellen said yesterday that the real fed funds rate is low and consistent with further improvement in the labour market, so these data are not going to change sentiment much, if at all. That said, if the labour market stays this strong (i.e. employment growth of c. 200k per month) that would put the unemployment rate at 4.7% in late Q2 according to the Atlanta Fed's jobs calculator.
June therefore may not be as remote a possibility for a rate hike as the market is pricing at the moment (22% odds of a Fed hike). But we know that for Yellen, in the short run anyway, financial market volatility and RMB stability are very important. The VIX is currently 13.8, below where the Fed raised rates in December and USD/CNY is around where it was when the FOMC raised rates (6.46).”
Key Quotes
“Revisions to February were minor at -9k, taking this measure of jobs growth in the month to 205k. However, Yellen said yesterday that the real fed funds rate is low and consistent with further improvement in the labour market, so these data are not going to change sentiment much, if at all. That said, if the labour market stays this strong (i.e. employment growth of c. 200k per month) that would put the unemployment rate at 4.7% in late Q2 according to the Atlanta Fed's jobs calculator.
June therefore may not be as remote a possibility for a rate hike as the market is pricing at the moment (22% odds of a Fed hike). But we know that for Yellen, in the short run anyway, financial market volatility and RMB stability are very important. The VIX is currently 13.8, below where the Fed raised rates in December and USD/CNY is around where it was when the FOMC raised rates (6.46).”