29 Mar 2016
Q1 GDP US tracking update - Nomura
Analysts at Nomura offered a Q1 GDP tracking update for the US economy.
Key Quotes:
"The advance goods trade report for February showed that imports and exports both increased in February. On a real basis, the increase in imports outpaced the increase in exports, suggesting a wider trade deficit and negative for Q1 growth.
Also, the personal spending data were less favorable for Q1 GDP. Although PCE was revised higher in Q4, the sharp downward revision to January’s real PCE spending figure suggests a weaker path of consumer spending to start the year. In sum, taking the new data into account, we revised down our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to 0.7% from 1.1% previously."
Key Quotes:
"The advance goods trade report for February showed that imports and exports both increased in February. On a real basis, the increase in imports outpaced the increase in exports, suggesting a wider trade deficit and negative for Q1 growth.
Also, the personal spending data were less favorable for Q1 GDP. Although PCE was revised higher in Q4, the sharp downward revision to January’s real PCE spending figure suggests a weaker path of consumer spending to start the year. In sum, taking the new data into account, we revised down our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.4pp to 0.7% from 1.1% previously."