25 Mar 2016
US Q4 GDP likely to be unchanged at 1.0% - BBH
Research Team at BBH, suggests that although US markets are closed, the government will report another revision of Q4 GDP and the consensus looks it to be unchanged at 1.0%.
Key Quotes
“However, we suspect there may be scope for downward coming from services. The new news will be the estimate of corporate profits. The decline that is expected stems largely from the energy sector, including a large fine for the Gulf spill.
Claims that the US is recession-bound arises from two issues: the decline in profitability and the tightening of conditions picked up by the Fed's survey of senior loan officers. We are less convinced, and see continued resilience in the nearly 70% of the economy driven by the consumer.
Moreover, the regional Fed surveys for March suggest that the quarter is ending on an upbeat note, and the increase in new orders point to the momentum carrying into Q2. Next week, we expected Yellen to reiterate what she said in her recent press conference that the April meeting is live, and another nonfarm payroll increase of around 200k may will reinforce that message.”
Key Quotes
“However, we suspect there may be scope for downward coming from services. The new news will be the estimate of corporate profits. The decline that is expected stems largely from the energy sector, including a large fine for the Gulf spill.
Claims that the US is recession-bound arises from two issues: the decline in profitability and the tightening of conditions picked up by the Fed's survey of senior loan officers. We are less convinced, and see continued resilience in the nearly 70% of the economy driven by the consumer.
Moreover, the regional Fed surveys for March suggest that the quarter is ending on an upbeat note, and the increase in new orders point to the momentum carrying into Q2. Next week, we expected Yellen to reiterate what she said in her recent press conference that the April meeting is live, and another nonfarm payroll increase of around 200k may will reinforce that message.”