15 Mar 2016
Banxico, CBR expected to retain monetary bias – TDS
Strategists at TD Securities see both Banxico and the Russian central bank (CBR) keeping their monetary policy stance on Friday.
Key Quotes
“On Friday, in line with the unanimous consensus, we expect Banxico to hold its Overnight Rate at 3.75% while it waits for the next Fed rate hike. The surprise Banxico rate hike in February and the change in the intervention regime, as well as the more EM-friendly trading environment and higher oil prices, has helped the peso gain significant ground over the past five weeks. This should allow Banxico breathing room to wait for the Fed’s next move, and follow in fashion”.
“Also on Friday, in Russia, in line with the consensus we expect the CBR to keep its Key Rate on hold at 11.0%. A stronger ruble since the January Board meeting and falling headline inflation may tempt the CBR to cut rates, but we think they will continue to err on the side of caution and keep rates on hold”.
Key Quotes
“On Friday, in line with the unanimous consensus, we expect Banxico to hold its Overnight Rate at 3.75% while it waits for the next Fed rate hike. The surprise Banxico rate hike in February and the change in the intervention regime, as well as the more EM-friendly trading environment and higher oil prices, has helped the peso gain significant ground over the past five weeks. This should allow Banxico breathing room to wait for the Fed’s next move, and follow in fashion”.
“Also on Friday, in Russia, in line with the consensus we expect the CBR to keep its Key Rate on hold at 11.0%. A stronger ruble since the January Board meeting and falling headline inflation may tempt the CBR to cut rates, but we think they will continue to err on the side of caution and keep rates on hold”.