14 Mar 2016
No surprises expected at the BoJ meeting tomorrow – Danske Bank
Chief Analyst at Danske Bank Allan von Mehren expects the BoJ to remain on-hold at tomorrow’s meeting.
Key Quotes
“Financial markets have stabilised and US recession fears have eased substantially over the past month, which has eased the imminent pressure on the BoJ to ease again”.
“Instead, we now expect the BoJ to cut its key policy rate by 20bp to -0.3% in July while keeping its QE programme unchanged at JPY80trn per month”.
“Our new call on BoJ to stay put tomorrow is fully in line with the consensus view among analysts and the market’s pricing also implies very little probability of easing in March”.
“It cannot be ruled out that the BoJ once again surprises the market, and given the very low easing expectations, risks are probably skewed to the upside for USD/JPY as we see little potential of JPY appreciation if the BoJ stays put”.
Key Quotes
“Financial markets have stabilised and US recession fears have eased substantially over the past month, which has eased the imminent pressure on the BoJ to ease again”.
“Instead, we now expect the BoJ to cut its key policy rate by 20bp to -0.3% in July while keeping its QE programme unchanged at JPY80trn per month”.
“Our new call on BoJ to stay put tomorrow is fully in line with the consensus view among analysts and the market’s pricing also implies very little probability of easing in March”.
“It cannot be ruled out that the BoJ once again surprises the market, and given the very low easing expectations, risks are probably skewed to the upside for USD/JPY as we see little potential of JPY appreciation if the BoJ stays put”.