14 Mar 2016
FOMC Preview: Status quo to be maintained - TDS
David Tulk, Head of Global Macro Strategy at TDS, suggests that the TD is aligned with the market consensus in expecting the Fed to leave its fed funds rate unchanged.
Key Quotes
“The accompanying statement is expected to acknowledge that additional market turmoil would increase the downside risks shrouding the outlook, but ultimately conclude that the recovery remains on track.
This mixed message will disappoint those who expect that the Fed will not hike in 2016, but stop short of giving any indication of when the next move will occur.
The dot plot for 2016 is expected to shift lower to show three rate hikes, which when combined with referencing downside risks, will be interpreted as modestly dovish.”
Key Quotes
“The accompanying statement is expected to acknowledge that additional market turmoil would increase the downside risks shrouding the outlook, but ultimately conclude that the recovery remains on track.
This mixed message will disappoint those who expect that the Fed will not hike in 2016, but stop short of giving any indication of when the next move will occur.
The dot plot for 2016 is expected to shift lower to show three rate hikes, which when combined with referencing downside risks, will be interpreted as modestly dovish.”