11 Mar 2016
FOMC: The pause that refreshes? - Westpac
Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that we will see whether Wed’s FOMC meeting helps puncture the AUD/USD rally.
Key Quotes
“A steady hand on rates is about 95% priced, with the focus instead on whether the quarterly forecasts still project substantial tightening and whether Chair Yellen is willing to declare each meeting live for another rate hike (Westpac expects this in June).
The US dollar has been somewhat soft lately despite better data. Perhaps a clear signal from Yellen will ignite a resumption of the H2 15 up trend. This would reinforce our suspicion that the current AUD/USD rally will fizzle out just as a similar surge did in Apr-May last year.”
Key Quotes
“A steady hand on rates is about 95% priced, with the focus instead on whether the quarterly forecasts still project substantial tightening and whether Chair Yellen is willing to declare each meeting live for another rate hike (Westpac expects this in June).
The US dollar has been somewhat soft lately despite better data. Perhaps a clear signal from Yellen will ignite a resumption of the H2 15 up trend. This would reinforce our suspicion that the current AUD/USD rally will fizzle out just as a similar surge did in Apr-May last year.”