8 Mar 2016
China: Latest data signalling a slower growth rate - Rabobank
Emile Cardon, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that China’s leaders had set an expansion goal of 6.5%-7% for 2016 which is clearly too optimistic in their view and the latest data are signaling a slower growth rate.
Key Quotes
“Chinese growth will continue to grind lower and a chunk of domestic capital will continue to look for better investment opportunities offshore. More news came from China via the FX reserves. These were USD28.6 billion lower in February compared to January.
Although this outcome was at the low end of expectations, lunar year distortions likely played a role. This also applies to the trade figures: the Chinese trade surplus plunged by more than USD 30bn in February to USD32.6bn with exports down a whopping 20.6% YoY. Moreover, the upshot of these FX reserves and trade balance figures combined is that they still point at very sizeable capital outflows.”
Key Quotes
“Chinese growth will continue to grind lower and a chunk of domestic capital will continue to look for better investment opportunities offshore. More news came from China via the FX reserves. These were USD28.6 billion lower in February compared to January.
Although this outcome was at the low end of expectations, lunar year distortions likely played a role. This also applies to the trade figures: the Chinese trade surplus plunged by more than USD 30bn in February to USD32.6bn with exports down a whopping 20.6% YoY. Moreover, the upshot of these FX reserves and trade balance figures combined is that they still point at very sizeable capital outflows.”