3 Mar 2016
European FX: On a shaky ground – Westpac
Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that a thicket of support for EUR/USD in the 1.07-1.08 range likely provides at best only fleeting assistance, these levels likely to be challenged into the 10 March ECB meeting.
Key Quotes
“A 10bp deposit rate cut is more than fully priced and further out a cumulative 30bp in cuts through year’s end is discounted. Caution understandably reigns supreme around the risk of underwhelming expectations given the ECB’s December debacle.
We assume Draghi will be hypersensitive to the risks of disappointing and with even Weidmann reportedly on board for more easing, Draghi should have an easier time at least matching and potentially over-delivering. Onward and downward for EUR into and in the immediate wake of next week’s ECB meeting.
GBP looks vulnerable to an oversold bounce but until the 23 June referendum definitively takes Brexit risk off the table, GBP will likely struggle to mount a multi-day advance. Inability to capitalise on notably stronger UK wages and retail sales data last week confi rm poor underlying health of the currency.
Heightened ECB easing risk and global risk aversion have pressured EUR/CHF from 1.12 to 1.08 in barely a month. The SNB will be sensitive to infl aming downside risks to the cross and can thus be expected to neutralise ECB easing by delivering further cuts at their 17 March meeting. EUR/CHF a buy into 1.08. Scope for USD/CHF1.02 multi-day/week.”
Key Quotes
“A 10bp deposit rate cut is more than fully priced and further out a cumulative 30bp in cuts through year’s end is discounted. Caution understandably reigns supreme around the risk of underwhelming expectations given the ECB’s December debacle.
We assume Draghi will be hypersensitive to the risks of disappointing and with even Weidmann reportedly on board for more easing, Draghi should have an easier time at least matching and potentially over-delivering. Onward and downward for EUR into and in the immediate wake of next week’s ECB meeting.
GBP looks vulnerable to an oversold bounce but until the 23 June referendum definitively takes Brexit risk off the table, GBP will likely struggle to mount a multi-day advance. Inability to capitalise on notably stronger UK wages and retail sales data last week confi rm poor underlying health of the currency.
Heightened ECB easing risk and global risk aversion have pressured EUR/CHF from 1.12 to 1.08 in barely a month. The SNB will be sensitive to infl aming downside risks to the cross and can thus be expected to neutralise ECB easing by delivering further cuts at their 17 March meeting. EUR/CHF a buy into 1.08. Scope for USD/CHF1.02 multi-day/week.”