2 Mar 2016
EM: Capital flow green shoots? - SocGen
Jason Daw, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that they are sceptical about the bottoming out of EM capital flows given that net capital flows into EM are closely related to the EM-G10 growth differential.
Key Quotes
“Until EM growth rebounds on a sustained basis, history points to further deterioration in capital flows and weaker currencies.
However, there are some green shoots starting to appear on the equity side. Foreigners have
been buyers of EM equities in February for the first time since May 2015.
While foreign buying has been paltry ($0.5bn) compared to the recent cumulative outflows ($40.2bn), it is the first evidence that the persistent net selling might be abating. Less encouraging is that flows have been mixed across countries – net selling in India, Korea, Philippines, and South Africa and net buying in Indonesia, Taiwan, Brazil and Turkey.”
Key Quotes
“Until EM growth rebounds on a sustained basis, history points to further deterioration in capital flows and weaker currencies.
However, there are some green shoots starting to appear on the equity side. Foreigners have
been buyers of EM equities in February for the first time since May 2015.
While foreign buying has been paltry ($0.5bn) compared to the recent cumulative outflows ($40.2bn), it is the first evidence that the persistent net selling might be abating. Less encouraging is that flows have been mixed across countries – net selling in India, Korea, Philippines, and South Africa and net buying in Indonesia, Taiwan, Brazil and Turkey.”