26 Feb 2016
ASEAN: Tracking fiscal performance and assessing fiscal space – Goldman Sachs
Research Team at Goldman Sachs, tracks the fiscal performance among the ASEAN-5 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore) and assess the fiscal space available going forward.
Key Quotes
“Budget revenues are highly dependent on tax collections. Further, n tax revenues are highly concentrated, with a large portion coming from income, sales and excise taxes. Expenditure mix is tilted more towards current than capital spending, although Philippines and Indonesia have improved this mix recently.
A few countries imparted positive fiscal impulse in recent years. However, high dependency on tax revenues and adherence to certain fiscal rules (particularly for Indonesia), limits their flexibility to employ counter-cyclical fiscal measures.
Going forward, Thailand will likely have the most fiscal space, and Malaysia and Philippines the least, largely due to their high level of public debt as a percent of GDP. In recent years, slowing nominal GDP growth has narrowed fiscal space in some economies and increased risk to debt sustainability. We believe capital expenditure execution must be improved in order for fiscal impulse to be more productive.”
Key Quotes
“Budget revenues are highly dependent on tax collections. Further, n tax revenues are highly concentrated, with a large portion coming from income, sales and excise taxes. Expenditure mix is tilted more towards current than capital spending, although Philippines and Indonesia have improved this mix recently.
A few countries imparted positive fiscal impulse in recent years. However, high dependency on tax revenues and adherence to certain fiscal rules (particularly for Indonesia), limits their flexibility to employ counter-cyclical fiscal measures.
Going forward, Thailand will likely have the most fiscal space, and Malaysia and Philippines the least, largely due to their high level of public debt as a percent of GDP. In recent years, slowing nominal GDP growth has narrowed fiscal space in some economies and increased risk to debt sustainability. We believe capital expenditure execution must be improved in order for fiscal impulse to be more productive.”