13 Nov 2013
Flash: BoE’s QIR ahead. What to do with GBP/USD? – BTMU and Commerzbank
FXstreet.com (Edinburgh) - The GBP/USD is now hovering over the key 1.5900 handle on Wednesday, as market participants eagerly wait for the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report, the UK jobless rate and the subsequent speech by Governor M.Carney.
“We expect the report to include: i) modest upward revisions to the growth outlook, ii) modest downward revisions to the inflation outlook with a lower perceived probability of the inflation knockout being triggered, and iii) modest downward revisions to the unemployment rate projections signaling a higher probability that the 7.0% threshold will be reached by late 2015 rather than by mid-2016”, assessed Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at BTMU.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “has eroded the 55 day ma at 1.5966. and the 1.5895 October low. We continue to wait for a CLOSE below this level to confirm that the market has topped. While this may provoke a couple more days of consolidation, we remain bearish”.
“We expect the report to include: i) modest upward revisions to the growth outlook, ii) modest downward revisions to the inflation outlook with a lower perceived probability of the inflation knockout being triggered, and iii) modest downward revisions to the unemployment rate projections signaling a higher probability that the 7.0% threshold will be reached by late 2015 rather than by mid-2016”, assessed Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at BTMU.
Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, noted the pair “has eroded the 55 day ma at 1.5966. and the 1.5895 October low. We continue to wait for a CLOSE below this level to confirm that the market has topped. While this may provoke a couple more days of consolidation, we remain bearish”.