12 Feb 2016
Two-way risk for USD/CAD - TDS
Analysts at TD Securities explained that It may have felt like a long time given the turmoil in asset markets, but it was only 3 weeks ago that USD/CAD made a rapid ascent to the multi-year highs of 1.4690.
Key Quotes:
"Though this was consistent with our view, we correctly anticipated a pullback, one that we think is a healthy and necessary development for the medium-term strategic view. We have argued then that significant upside and downside is inherently self-defeating for reasons related to exchange rate pass through and the rebalancing in non-commodity exports that requires a weak CAD (i.e. too much strength in the CAD would make the Bank uncomfortable).
USD/CAD is not a focal point in markets at the moment, and rightfully so given there is bigger fish to fry in the JPY and the EUR, along with broader interbank lending concerns.
USD/CAD has quietly made a comeback from the February 4th lows. Technically, the daily charts on funds are bullish with a hammer formation on February 4th but also with the daily RSI and stochastics having found a local min. We would require a break above 1.4050 to make us confident in expecting an extension towards 1.43 over the medium-term (which is our forecast for the first half of this year).
At this juncture, that view is complicated by how heavy the USD has traded in recent sessions. And with WTI sitting sub-$30 and USD/CAD sub 1.40, we are a bit more concerned about downside in funds, at least from a short-term perspective. Barring a significant and legitimate announcement in supply cuts from OPEC however, downside potential in USD/CAD should remained contained. 1.3640 offers a durable level of support—dips below that should be bought."
Key Quotes:
"Though this was consistent with our view, we correctly anticipated a pullback, one that we think is a healthy and necessary development for the medium-term strategic view. We have argued then that significant upside and downside is inherently self-defeating for reasons related to exchange rate pass through and the rebalancing in non-commodity exports that requires a weak CAD (i.e. too much strength in the CAD would make the Bank uncomfortable).
USD/CAD is not a focal point in markets at the moment, and rightfully so given there is bigger fish to fry in the JPY and the EUR, along with broader interbank lending concerns.
USD/CAD has quietly made a comeback from the February 4th lows. Technically, the daily charts on funds are bullish with a hammer formation on February 4th but also with the daily RSI and stochastics having found a local min. We would require a break above 1.4050 to make us confident in expecting an extension towards 1.43 over the medium-term (which is our forecast for the first half of this year).
At this juncture, that view is complicated by how heavy the USD has traded in recent sessions. And with WTI sitting sub-$30 and USD/CAD sub 1.40, we are a bit more concerned about downside in funds, at least from a short-term perspective. Barring a significant and legitimate announcement in supply cuts from OPEC however, downside potential in USD/CAD should remained contained. 1.3640 offers a durable level of support—dips below that should be bought."