28 Jan 2016
US: Next Fed rate hike to come in June not in March - Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research team at Nomura, notes that at the conclusion of the 26-27 January FOMC meeting, the Committee decided to leave the federal funds rate target unchanged at 0.25-0.50%, in line with market expectations.
Key Quotes
“There were some notable changes, however, to the policy statement. The economic assessment portion of the statement acknowledged the slowdown in growth late last year. It also recognized further declines in market-based measures of inflation compensation.
On the risk assessment, the Committee removed the language observing that the risks to the outlook were “balanced” with no new guidance. Rather, it noted that the Committee is “closely monitoring” the situation and will be assessing how new global economic and financial developments affect the Committee’s outlook on the US economy.
The “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy” was little changed. There was one change where it noted that the FOMC would be "concerned" by persistent deviations of inflation from the Fed's target. This change is on the dovish side, although fundamentally at the margin. On balance, the policy decision and the statement read pretty much in line with our expectations. Given the recent slowdown in economic activity and low inflation, we still believe that the next rate hike is more likely to come in June than in March.”
Key Quotes
“There were some notable changes, however, to the policy statement. The economic assessment portion of the statement acknowledged the slowdown in growth late last year. It also recognized further declines in market-based measures of inflation compensation.
On the risk assessment, the Committee removed the language observing that the risks to the outlook were “balanced” with no new guidance. Rather, it noted that the Committee is “closely monitoring” the situation and will be assessing how new global economic and financial developments affect the Committee’s outlook on the US economy.
The “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy” was little changed. There was one change where it noted that the FOMC would be "concerned" by persistent deviations of inflation from the Fed's target. This change is on the dovish side, although fundamentally at the margin. On balance, the policy decision and the statement read pretty much in line with our expectations. Given the recent slowdown in economic activity and low inflation, we still believe that the next rate hike is more likely to come in June than in March.”