18 Jan 2016
NZD: Negative bias across all horizons out to three months - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, suggests that the data highlight this week will be the release of Q4 CPI on Thu.
Key Quotes
“We forecast 0.2% qoq (0.3% yoy) which shouldn’t be a surprise given the Dec quarter is seasonally the low point in the year. The RBNZ will be looking ahead to the Mar quarter to get a real sense of what underlying infl ation is doing. Also important next week will be the GDT dairy auction, futures markets signalling only a 2% rise (i.e. close to unchanged).
Bias: We hold a negative bias across all horizons out to three months. Momentum is negative and a break below our week-ahead target of 0.6430 should then pave the way to 0.62 multi month. Global risk aversion dominates via (at least) two channels: an aversion to owning highbeta currencies such as the NZD, and spillover from falling commodities such as oil into dairy prices. Add to all this the RBNZ’s easing bias, which contrasts with the Fed’s tightening one.”
Key Quotes
“We forecast 0.2% qoq (0.3% yoy) which shouldn’t be a surprise given the Dec quarter is seasonally the low point in the year. The RBNZ will be looking ahead to the Mar quarter to get a real sense of what underlying infl ation is doing. Also important next week will be the GDT dairy auction, futures markets signalling only a 2% rise (i.e. close to unchanged).
Bias: We hold a negative bias across all horizons out to three months. Momentum is negative and a break below our week-ahead target of 0.6430 should then pave the way to 0.62 multi month. Global risk aversion dominates via (at least) two channels: an aversion to owning highbeta currencies such as the NZD, and spillover from falling commodities such as oil into dairy prices. Add to all this the RBNZ’s easing bias, which contrasts with the Fed’s tightening one.”