15 Jan 2016
NZD/USD outlook: not looking very positive - Westpac
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Westpac are bearish on NZD/USD.
Key Quotes:
"Event risk: The data highlight next week will be the release of Q4 CPI on Thu. We forecast 0.2% qoq (0.3% yoy) which shouldn’t be a surprise given the Dec quarter is seasonally the low point in the year. The RBNZ will be looking ahead to the Mar quarter to get a real sense of what underlying inflation is doing. Also important next week will be the GDT dairy auction, futures markets signalling only a 2% rise (i.e. close to unchanged)."
"Bias: We hold a negative bias across all horizons out to three months. Momentum is negative and a break below our week-ahead target of 0.6430 should then pave the way to 0.62 multi month. Global risk aversion dominates via (at least) two channels: an aversion to owning high beta currencies such as the NZD, and spillover from falling commodities such as oil into dairy prices. Add to all this the RBNZ’s easing bias, which contrasts with the Fed’s tightening one."
Key Quotes:
"Event risk: The data highlight next week will be the release of Q4 CPI on Thu. We forecast 0.2% qoq (0.3% yoy) which shouldn’t be a surprise given the Dec quarter is seasonally the low point in the year. The RBNZ will be looking ahead to the Mar quarter to get a real sense of what underlying inflation is doing. Also important next week will be the GDT dairy auction, futures markets signalling only a 2% rise (i.e. close to unchanged)."
"Bias: We hold a negative bias across all horizons out to three months. Momentum is negative and a break below our week-ahead target of 0.6430 should then pave the way to 0.62 multi month. Global risk aversion dominates via (at least) two channels: an aversion to owning high beta currencies such as the NZD, and spillover from falling commodities such as oil into dairy prices. Add to all this the RBNZ’s easing bias, which contrasts with the Fed’s tightening one."