13 Jan 2016
Sterling shows no reversal pattern - BBH
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that to be sure, there is no reversal pattern in sterling.
Key Quotes:
"There are no divergences in the RSI or MACDs. No downtrend line has been violated. Nevertheless, we suspect that the rubber band has been stretched and is nearly ready to snap back.
Sterling has fallen in nine of the last eleven sessions coming into today. Speculators in the futures markets had reduced their gross short sterling exposure to its lowest level last year in late-September at 43.7k contract. In early November, the gross short position was still small at 45.8k contracts. It stood at 56.3k contracts in the middle of December and 75.2k as of January 5. This is a six-month high.
There is a risk then for a near-term short-squeeze, which may follow tomorrow's BOE meeting. There are two levels to watch indicate that such a short-squeeze, which again, the technical evidence remains elusive. First is the five day moving average. It is near $1.4515 today. Sterling has not closed above this average since December 28, when the latest leg down began. The other level is about a cent higher. It corresponds to a down trendline drawn off the December 14 high and corresponds to some congestion from the end of last week and the start of this week."
Key Quotes:
"There are no divergences in the RSI or MACDs. No downtrend line has been violated. Nevertheless, we suspect that the rubber band has been stretched and is nearly ready to snap back.
Sterling has fallen in nine of the last eleven sessions coming into today. Speculators in the futures markets had reduced their gross short sterling exposure to its lowest level last year in late-September at 43.7k contract. In early November, the gross short position was still small at 45.8k contracts. It stood at 56.3k contracts in the middle of December and 75.2k as of January 5. This is a six-month high.
There is a risk then for a near-term short-squeeze, which may follow tomorrow's BOE meeting. There are two levels to watch indicate that such a short-squeeze, which again, the technical evidence remains elusive. First is the five day moving average. It is near $1.4515 today. Sterling has not closed above this average since December 28, when the latest leg down began. The other level is about a cent higher. It corresponds to a down trendline drawn off the December 14 high and corresponds to some congestion from the end of last week and the start of this week."