11 Jan 2016
Nordic CPI data a key focus amid divergent central bank views - BNPP
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at BNP Paribas, expects Norway headline CPI to have accelerated to a 2.9% y/y pace in December but look for core CPI to have held at 3.1%.
Key Quotes
“With oil prices continuing to fall, we think the Norges Bank is likely to cut rates further, possibly at its March policy meeting, regardless of stubbornly high CPI. We remain bearish on the NOK accordingly. Later in the week, we expect the Swedish core CPI rate to moderate to 0.8% y/y from levels around 1% over the previous three months.
However, with growth picking up and excess capacity shrinking, we think further Riksbank easing is unlikely. The central bank may intervene in an effort to stem SEK gains but we favour using intervention-driven gains in EURSEK to add to shorts. Elsewhere, we expect no major changes or signals from Thursday’s BoE meeting, though risks remain to the upside with current market pricing for UK policy rates too dovish in our view.”
Key Quotes
“With oil prices continuing to fall, we think the Norges Bank is likely to cut rates further, possibly at its March policy meeting, regardless of stubbornly high CPI. We remain bearish on the NOK accordingly. Later in the week, we expect the Swedish core CPI rate to moderate to 0.8% y/y from levels around 1% over the previous three months.
However, with growth picking up and excess capacity shrinking, we think further Riksbank easing is unlikely. The central bank may intervene in an effort to stem SEK gains but we favour using intervention-driven gains in EURSEK to add to shorts. Elsewhere, we expect no major changes or signals from Thursday’s BoE meeting, though risks remain to the upside with current market pricing for UK policy rates too dovish in our view.”