11 Jan 2016
AUD: Dec labour force survey preview – unemployment – Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Westpac, suggests that the significant rise in employment in Nov was offset to some extent by a meaningful lift in participation from 65.0% to 65.3%.
Key Quotes
“Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate was still an impressive 0.1ppt, to 5.8%.
Before you argue that this is all just monthly volatility, you should note the trend rise in participation since Dec 2013, when the participation rate bottomed out at 64.5%. The current participation rate is also around the average seen since Mar 2008, so it is far from an extreme print.
As such, we are forecasting a modest pull back in the participation rate to 65.2%, limiting the rise in the unemployment rate to 5.9%.”
Key Quotes
“Nevertheless, the fall in the unemployment rate was still an impressive 0.1ppt, to 5.8%.
Before you argue that this is all just monthly volatility, you should note the trend rise in participation since Dec 2013, when the participation rate bottomed out at 64.5%. The current participation rate is also around the average seen since Mar 2008, so it is far from an extreme print.
As such, we are forecasting a modest pull back in the participation rate to 65.2%, limiting the rise in the unemployment rate to 5.9%.”