8 Jan 2016
USD/CNY revised higher to 6.95 by Sept 16 - Nomura
FXStreet (Bali) - The Japanese Economics Team at Nomura has revised their USD/CNY forecasts through 2017, now expecting USD/CNY to peak at 6.95 at end-September 2016 vs previous forecast of 6.72.
Key Quotes
"Even allowing for the issue of foreign-currency debt, we think that CNY depreciation will be broadly positive for China’s GDP growth and negative for other Asian countries and regions, with the extent to which each country or region is affected likely to depend on the competitiveness of local companies versus their Chinese counterparts."
"For the Japanese economy too, we think CNY depreciation will have negative ramifications for exports and inbound demand. That said, even a 20% CNY devaluation versus USD would only affect Japanese GDP to the tune of around -0.3%, suggesting that the impact from our revised USD/CNY forecast is also likely to be limited."
Of course, if the CNY’s weakening since the start of 2016 is a deliberate attempt to support the Chinese economy in the face of a greater-than-expected slowdown, we probably need to consider the impact on the Japanese economy at other levels rather than purely from the perspective of CNY devaluation."
"That said, overall Chinese economic indicators are presenting a mixed picture, including some signs of stability. We therefore do not think that the slowdown in the Chinese economy is gaining traction."
Key Quotes
"Even allowing for the issue of foreign-currency debt, we think that CNY depreciation will be broadly positive for China’s GDP growth and negative for other Asian countries and regions, with the extent to which each country or region is affected likely to depend on the competitiveness of local companies versus their Chinese counterparts."
"For the Japanese economy too, we think CNY depreciation will have negative ramifications for exports and inbound demand. That said, even a 20% CNY devaluation versus USD would only affect Japanese GDP to the tune of around -0.3%, suggesting that the impact from our revised USD/CNY forecast is also likely to be limited."
Of course, if the CNY’s weakening since the start of 2016 is a deliberate attempt to support the Chinese economy in the face of a greater-than-expected slowdown, we probably need to consider the impact on the Japanese economy at other levels rather than purely from the perspective of CNY devaluation."
"That said, overall Chinese economic indicators are presenting a mixed picture, including some signs of stability. We therefore do not think that the slowdown in the Chinese economy is gaining traction."