28 Oct 2013
AUD/USD constructive for 0.9530?
FXstreet.com (London) - In Asia Pac, a better-than-expected Chinese HSBC flash PMI and initially prompted the AUD rally to 0.9650 but has since plummeted towards September resistance 0.9530 but was held just shy to mark a low of 0.9555, and is currently oscillating in 0.9570 supporting territory.
The greatest volatility in the foreign exchange market again today has come in the yen crosses versus the Australian and that would suggest that possibly China is one of the factors causing the current angst for investors. Flash HSBC Manufacturing PMI in China Oct rose to 50.9 (prior:50.2, mkt:50.4) with new orders at a seven-month high. “This indicator has weak predictive power in our view but is closely followed by the markets. AUD and NZD positive” explained Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research, FX and Rates Strategy at TD Securities. However, she went onto say that RBA’s Deputy Governor Lowe’s speech detailed the familiar reasons why non-mining investment (NMI) has been weak, then details why the Bank forecasts NMI "in the high single digits within the coming years" via “(1) business confidence picked up pre- and post election, although "needs to be sustained" (2) low interest rates (help to "move out the risk curve") and (3) while the lower AUD ("8% lower since April") has been welcome, "further depreciation would be helpful". Research Teams at TD Securities highlighted the forthcoming events for the AUD. “RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens will be giving comments on Tue at the annual Citi Conference in Sydney; Wed HIA Sep New Home Sales MoM will be released. (Prior:3.4%); Thu Sep Building Approvals MoM will be released. (TD: 2%; Prior:-4.7%, mkt:2.8%); Private Sector credit MoM for Sep will be released. (Prior:0.3%, mkt and TD:0.4%)”.
AUD/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.9511, the 50 DMA is 0.9319 and the 200 DMA is 0.9739. RSI (14 reads) 56.15. Supports are ascending from 0.9485, 0.9499, 0.9530 and 0.9570. Spot is currently being supported 0.9565/75 while resistances are 0.9604, 0.9634, 0.9671, 0.9693 and 0.9715.
The greatest volatility in the foreign exchange market again today has come in the yen crosses versus the Australian and that would suggest that possibly China is one of the factors causing the current angst for investors. Flash HSBC Manufacturing PMI in China Oct rose to 50.9 (prior:50.2, mkt:50.4) with new orders at a seven-month high. “This indicator has weak predictive power in our view but is closely followed by the markets. AUD and NZD positive” explained Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research, FX and Rates Strategy at TD Securities. However, she went onto say that RBA’s Deputy Governor Lowe’s speech detailed the familiar reasons why non-mining investment (NMI) has been weak, then details why the Bank forecasts NMI "in the high single digits within the coming years" via “(1) business confidence picked up pre- and post election, although "needs to be sustained" (2) low interest rates (help to "move out the risk curve") and (3) while the lower AUD ("8% lower since April") has been welcome, "further depreciation would be helpful". Research Teams at TD Securities highlighted the forthcoming events for the AUD. “RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens will be giving comments on Tue at the annual Citi Conference in Sydney; Wed HIA Sep New Home Sales MoM will be released. (Prior:3.4%); Thu Sep Building Approvals MoM will be released. (TD: 2%; Prior:-4.7%, mkt:2.8%); Private Sector credit MoM for Sep will be released. (Prior:0.3%, mkt and TD:0.4%)”.
AUD/USD Levels
The 20 DMA is 0.9511, the 50 DMA is 0.9319 and the 200 DMA is 0.9739. RSI (14 reads) 56.15. Supports are ascending from 0.9485, 0.9499, 0.9530 and 0.9570. Spot is currently being supported 0.9565/75 while resistances are 0.9604, 0.9634, 0.9671, 0.9693 and 0.9715.