4 Dec 2015
US NFP and OPEC to be in focus today – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Danske Bank, suggests that the US job report is a key release ahead of the FOMC meeting on 16 December which will be followed by the all-important OPEC meet.
Key Quotes
“A slower rate of job growth seems plausible and we estimate a November increase in non-farm payrolls of around 175,000, which is below the consensus estimate of approximately 200,000, but still well above labour force growth rate. The jobs report would have to be very weak to alter our call that the FOMC will raise rates in December.”
“We expect that average hourly earnings (AHE) increased by 0.3% m/m in November implying a decline in the annual growth rate from 2.5% y/y in October to 2.3% y/y in November. Tonight the Fed's Bullard (non-voter hawkish) and Kocherlakota (non-voter, dovish) will speak.”
“Today's semi-annual OPEC meeting will also be in focus. OPEC will most likely announce unchanged production quota and thus the OPEC (Saudi) price war will continue near term. This is widely expected and the oil price should be little changed on this announcement.”
Key Quotes
“A slower rate of job growth seems plausible and we estimate a November increase in non-farm payrolls of around 175,000, which is below the consensus estimate of approximately 200,000, but still well above labour force growth rate. The jobs report would have to be very weak to alter our call that the FOMC will raise rates in December.”
“We expect that average hourly earnings (AHE) increased by 0.3% m/m in November implying a decline in the annual growth rate from 2.5% y/y in October to 2.3% y/y in November. Tonight the Fed's Bullard (non-voter hawkish) and Kocherlakota (non-voter, dovish) will speak.”
“Today's semi-annual OPEC meeting will also be in focus. OPEC will most likely announce unchanged production quota and thus the OPEC (Saudi) price war will continue near term. This is widely expected and the oil price should be little changed on this announcement.”