23 Oct 2013
Flash: Australian CPI should be some way off consensus to impact the AUD - Westpac
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The focus in the Asian calendar will be Australia's Q3 CPI, in which Westpac looks for 1.0% q/q.
Key Quotes
"Seasonal rises in utilities and council rates plus petrol prices expected to be key drivers of the large quarterly rise (consensus 0.8%). But as the impact of the 1 July 2012 carbon tax drops out, the y/y rate is set to fall from 2.4% to 2.0%, a low since Q2 12."
"Markets should focus more on the underlying measures, where we expect the average of the two RBA core measures to be 0.6% q/q, 2.2% y/y."
"These forecasts are in line with consensus so an outcome in line with our expectations would have only a fleeting (positive) impact on AUD."
"The outcome would have to be some way from consensus (say 0.4 or 0.8 on core CPI) to have a substantial effect on RBA pricing given the RBA’s signal that another rate cut is not “imminent”. Only -6bp is priced by Dec."
Key Quotes
"Seasonal rises in utilities and council rates plus petrol prices expected to be key drivers of the large quarterly rise (consensus 0.8%). But as the impact of the 1 July 2012 carbon tax drops out, the y/y rate is set to fall from 2.4% to 2.0%, a low since Q2 12."
"Markets should focus more on the underlying measures, where we expect the average of the two RBA core measures to be 0.6% q/q, 2.2% y/y."
"These forecasts are in line with consensus so an outcome in line with our expectations would have only a fleeting (positive) impact on AUD."
"The outcome would have to be some way from consensus (say 0.4 or 0.8 on core CPI) to have a substantial effect on RBA pricing given the RBA’s signal that another rate cut is not “imminent”. Only -6bp is priced by Dec."