26 Nov 2015
EUR forecasts tweaked back down – NAB
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at NAB is not overly bearish on the euro here, preferring to consider EUR/USD as more likely to be a 1.00 -1.10 currency rather than their previous characterisation as a 1.05 -1.15 pair.
Key Quotes
“The extent of prevailing short positioning in the euro tempers any enthusiasm for suggesting a fall below parity over the forecast horizon.”
“We have little doubt that between now and end-2016, we will experience several ‘risk-off episodes’. In the meantime, the euro’s funding currency status is likely to be further enhanced by whatever the ECB announces on 3 December. The 6% fall in EUR/USD since 22 October has, judging from Mr Draghi’s remarks on 12 November (when EUR/USD was already sub-1.08) evidently done nothing to dampen his enthusiasm for undertaking further action next months. Draghi contended that “downside economic risks are clearly visible” and that “inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened”.”
“We look for the ECB to deliver another 10 -15bps reduction in the Deposit rate (from -20bps) as well as increasing the QE quantum from the current €60bn per month. While partially discounted, we still think this will serve to at least validate the recent move lower in the euro. Hence we now see 1.05 as a pivot for EUR/USD in coming months, versus 1.10 previously.”
Key Quotes
“The extent of prevailing short positioning in the euro tempers any enthusiasm for suggesting a fall below parity over the forecast horizon.”
“We have little doubt that between now and end-2016, we will experience several ‘risk-off episodes’. In the meantime, the euro’s funding currency status is likely to be further enhanced by whatever the ECB announces on 3 December. The 6% fall in EUR/USD since 22 October has, judging from Mr Draghi’s remarks on 12 November (when EUR/USD was already sub-1.08) evidently done nothing to dampen his enthusiasm for undertaking further action next months. Draghi contended that “downside economic risks are clearly visible” and that “inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened”.”
“We look for the ECB to deliver another 10 -15bps reduction in the Deposit rate (from -20bps) as well as increasing the QE quantum from the current €60bn per month. While partially discounted, we still think this will serve to at least validate the recent move lower in the euro. Hence we now see 1.05 as a pivot for EUR/USD in coming months, versus 1.10 previously.”