13 Nov 2015
Key data for UK next week - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the key data for the UK next week.
Key Quotes:
"UK October CPI (17 Nov): UK inflation is expected to remain in negative territory in October, with a second consecutive reading of -0.1% y/y (consensus: -0.1% y/y). The Bank of England clearly sees inflation remaining remarkably weak in coming months, as shown by their significantly revised-down inflation forecast in the November Inflation Report. Core inflation pressures from the middle of this year have also largely appeared to have topped out (at least for now), and for this reason we expect core inflation to register a third month at 1.0% y/y (same as consensus).
UK October Retail Sales (19 Nov): September’s retail sales number was boosted significantly by a combination of the inclusion of August’s Bank Holiday in the September sample, coupled with increased activity around the rugby World Cup. While the Bank Holiday effect should drag on retail sales as it drops out of the print, 28 of the 48 games rugby games were played in October, which should provide sustained lift to the month. We see upside risks to the market consensus of -0.4% m/m, with TD expecting a reading of 0.7% m/m, but note that uncertainty remains elevated around this release owing to the special factors.
UK Public Finances (20 Nov): Markets expect the government’s (ex-banking) borrowing to have shrunk from £9.4bn in September to £6bn in October. This would mark an improvement of about £1bn relative to the October 2014 figure, largely on account of healthy tax receipts over the last year. This is the last public accounts publication before the Autumn Statement on 25 November, and as it currently stands, it looks like government borrowing in FY2015/16 is on track to decline from the previous year, but to still be somewhat higher than originally anticipated."
Key Quotes:
"UK October CPI (17 Nov): UK inflation is expected to remain in negative territory in October, with a second consecutive reading of -0.1% y/y (consensus: -0.1% y/y). The Bank of England clearly sees inflation remaining remarkably weak in coming months, as shown by their significantly revised-down inflation forecast in the November Inflation Report. Core inflation pressures from the middle of this year have also largely appeared to have topped out (at least for now), and for this reason we expect core inflation to register a third month at 1.0% y/y (same as consensus).
UK October Retail Sales (19 Nov): September’s retail sales number was boosted significantly by a combination of the inclusion of August’s Bank Holiday in the September sample, coupled with increased activity around the rugby World Cup. While the Bank Holiday effect should drag on retail sales as it drops out of the print, 28 of the 48 games rugby games were played in October, which should provide sustained lift to the month. We see upside risks to the market consensus of -0.4% m/m, with TD expecting a reading of 0.7% m/m, but note that uncertainty remains elevated around this release owing to the special factors.
UK Public Finances (20 Nov): Markets expect the government’s (ex-banking) borrowing to have shrunk from £9.4bn in September to £6bn in October. This would mark an improvement of about £1bn relative to the October 2014 figure, largely on account of healthy tax receipts over the last year. This is the last public accounts publication before the Autumn Statement on 25 November, and as it currently stands, it looks like government borrowing in FY2015/16 is on track to decline from the previous year, but to still be somewhat higher than originally anticipated."