28 Oct 2015
What to expect from today's Australian Q3 CPI? - RBS
FXStreet (Bali) - Brian Daingerfield, FX Trading Strategist at RBS, notes that today's Australian Q3 CPI data, if in line with expectations, may be enough to keep the RBA unchanged next week.
Key Quotes
"Third-quarter inflation is released in Australia and is the key data release ahead of the November policy RBA decision and forecast update next week."
"RBA officials have done little to signal that they are increasingly concerned about the domestic growth outlook, particularly with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.2% in September."
"Each of the three measures of inflation released next week are expected to edge slightly higher in the third quarter."
"While the headline measure may hold below target, both core measures (weighted median and trimmed mean) may edge closer to the centre of the RBA’s target range for inflation of 2.0-3.0% y/y.
If realized, that may be enough to keep the RBA unchanged next week."
"Still, we remain fundamentally bearish on the Australian economy as low commodity prices and soft Chinese growth outlook continue to be a drag."
"Further, the housing market remains a primary concern for the RBA, and we think the actions taken by several private banks to tighten lending conditions add scope for the RBA to ease monetary policy."
Key Quotes
"Third-quarter inflation is released in Australia and is the key data release ahead of the November policy RBA decision and forecast update next week."
"RBA officials have done little to signal that they are increasingly concerned about the domestic growth outlook, particularly with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.2% in September."
"Each of the three measures of inflation released next week are expected to edge slightly higher in the third quarter."
"While the headline measure may hold below target, both core measures (weighted median and trimmed mean) may edge closer to the centre of the RBA’s target range for inflation of 2.0-3.0% y/y.
If realized, that may be enough to keep the RBA unchanged next week."
"Still, we remain fundamentally bearish on the Australian economy as low commodity prices and soft Chinese growth outlook continue to be a drag."
"Further, the housing market remains a primary concern for the RBA, and we think the actions taken by several private banks to tighten lending conditions add scope for the RBA to ease monetary policy."