22 Oct 2015
AUD: Australia’s NAB business survey declines - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Prashant Newnaha, Rates Strategist at TD Securities, notes that the Q3 NAB Business Confidence fell to flat from +4 in the previous quarter conditions jump to the highest since 2008 but the market ignored this report while the capex plans were reported to rise.
Key Quotes
“CBA lifted mortgage rates by 15bps, hitting both investor and owner occupier loans. We expect further AUD downside as London comes in. Two caveats from our side (1) the RBA minutes only on Tue said the Board was comfortable with the banks shoring up financial stability (ie raising capital and likely includes interest rates) as housing risks have not diminished and (2) after the shock cut of Feb we still suspect that the Bank would prefer to switch to an easing bias first, rather than repeat neutral and then cut.”
Key Quotes
“CBA lifted mortgage rates by 15bps, hitting both investor and owner occupier loans. We expect further AUD downside as London comes in. Two caveats from our side (1) the RBA minutes only on Tue said the Board was comfortable with the banks shoring up financial stability (ie raising capital and likely includes interest rates) as housing risks have not diminished and (2) after the shock cut of Feb we still suspect that the Bank would prefer to switch to an easing bias first, rather than repeat neutral and then cut.”