15 Sep 2015
US retail sales: Not so impressive numbers - ING
FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Carnell, Research Analyst at ING, notes that the US advance retail sales for August is one of the last important releases prior to the FOMC meeting on September 17th, and though the figures, once adjusted for prior revisions, are roughly in line with consensus, this comes across as a fairly ordinary result, not one that will encourage any wavering FOMC doves to switch their vote to a September hike.
Key Quotes
“The headline sales figures rose 0.2%mom (0.3% cons) with a 0.1ppt upward revision to the July figure (now 0.7%), ex autos the rise was 0.1%mom, and ex autos and gas, the rise was 0.3%.”
“The other main figure in the release, is a so-called “control group”, which excludes more of the volatile elements, including building materials. And this was a more impressive 0.4%mom, again with some nice upward revisions (+0.2ppt from the previous release).”
“But this would be a more convincing set of figures if one did not have to exclude all the weak parts to make the number look strong, and we don’t think the FOMC members will be substantially moved by this data.”
“Separately, the latest Empire manufacturing survey for the NY region continued to languish at -14.67 only marginally improved from -14.92. Today’s data tally in total is at best neutral for the Sept FOMC, and probably a slight negative overall.”
Key Quotes
“The headline sales figures rose 0.2%mom (0.3% cons) with a 0.1ppt upward revision to the July figure (now 0.7%), ex autos the rise was 0.1%mom, and ex autos and gas, the rise was 0.3%.”
“The other main figure in the release, is a so-called “control group”, which excludes more of the volatile elements, including building materials. And this was a more impressive 0.4%mom, again with some nice upward revisions (+0.2ppt from the previous release).”
“But this would be a more convincing set of figures if one did not have to exclude all the weak parts to make the number look strong, and we don’t think the FOMC members will be substantially moved by this data.”
“Separately, the latest Empire manufacturing survey for the NY region continued to languish at -14.67 only marginally improved from -14.92. Today’s data tally in total is at best neutral for the Sept FOMC, and probably a slight negative overall.”