18 Aug 2015
Sell rallies in AUD/USD – Rabobank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank recommends selling the pair on occasional bullish attempts.
Key Quotes
“While the timing of last week’s plunge in the CNY took us by surprise, we have been calling for a weakening in the value of the CNY vs. the USD for some time as the Chinese authorities seek to more closely align the value of the currency to the forces of slow growth and disinflation”.
“On the back of the move, we have revised up our forecasts for USD/CNY to 6.70 on a 12 mth view and, while we are forecasting that AUD/CNY could hold relative stable near current levels in the coming 12 months, this view is based on our assumption that AUD/USD will fall towards 0.69”.
“Concerns over Chinese growth are being mixed concerns over a faltering economy recovery in Japan with a worsening growth outlook for Indonesia”.
“Against this backdrop we still see scope for further RBA easing this cycle and look to sell AUD/USD into rallies. Initial resistance is likely to be provided by the 100 and 200 day smas near AUD/USD0.7370”.
Key Quotes
“While the timing of last week’s plunge in the CNY took us by surprise, we have been calling for a weakening in the value of the CNY vs. the USD for some time as the Chinese authorities seek to more closely align the value of the currency to the forces of slow growth and disinflation”.
“On the back of the move, we have revised up our forecasts for USD/CNY to 6.70 on a 12 mth view and, while we are forecasting that AUD/CNY could hold relative stable near current levels in the coming 12 months, this view is based on our assumption that AUD/USD will fall towards 0.69”.
“Concerns over Chinese growth are being mixed concerns over a faltering economy recovery in Japan with a worsening growth outlook for Indonesia”.
“Against this backdrop we still see scope for further RBA easing this cycle and look to sell AUD/USD into rallies. Initial resistance is likely to be provided by the 100 and 200 day smas near AUD/USD0.7370”.