10 Aug 2015
Different views in the FX EM space – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at TD Securities gave their views on the EM space.
Key Quotes
“Growth remains robust in Hungary and Poland, but political risks rising in Poland with elections in October. Lower gold prices not helping already lacklustre South African growth outlook. In Turkey, geopolitical risks have increased sharply and new elections are looking increasingly likely. Lower oil prices to hit already weak Russia economy, but the inflation rate will trend downwards”.
“Strong growth and continuing EZ QE should bias EURHUF and EURPLN lower, but PLNHUF may weaken due to increasing political risks in Poland. USDRUB likely to continue to be driven by oil price. With risk of terrorist attacks and new elections increasing, USDTRY likely to keeep moving higher. The weak economy will stop ZAR benefitting from higher rates and we see USDZAR trending higher”.
Key Quotes
“Growth remains robust in Hungary and Poland, but political risks rising in Poland with elections in October. Lower gold prices not helping already lacklustre South African growth outlook. In Turkey, geopolitical risks have increased sharply and new elections are looking increasingly likely. Lower oil prices to hit already weak Russia economy, but the inflation rate will trend downwards”.
“Strong growth and continuing EZ QE should bias EURHUF and EURPLN lower, but PLNHUF may weaken due to increasing political risks in Poland. USDRUB likely to continue to be driven by oil price. With risk of terrorist attacks and new elections increasing, USDTRY likely to keeep moving higher. The weak economy will stop ZAR benefitting from higher rates and we see USDZAR trending higher”.