7 Aug 2015
Nonfarm Payrolls data just strong enough - ING
FXStreet (Guatemala) - James Knightley, analyst at ING Bank explained that the July Jobs report is ok.
Key Quotes:
"It is strong enough to keep the September rate hike our central case, but we will need to see something similar or better next month to give the market reasonable confidence that it will indeed happen.
The headlines are that payrolls rose 215k with 14k upward revisions to the last two months so on balance is pretty close to the 225k consensus. The unemployment rate remains at 5.3% as expected while average hourly earnings rose 0.2%MoM, which was also in line with consensus although the YoY rate was 2.1% rather than the 2.3% figure expected. Additionally, the average work week rose to 34.6 hours from 34.5.
This all seems consistent with the “further improvement” in the labour market that the Federal Reserve is seeking – jobs are being created, unemployment is falling, people are working more hours and pay is ticking higher. With average earnings likely to rise further given the shrinking slack in the labour market this should help to give the Fed confidence that inflation will rise back towards the 2% in the medium term even with the weakness in energy and commodity prices."
Key Quotes:
"It is strong enough to keep the September rate hike our central case, but we will need to see something similar or better next month to give the market reasonable confidence that it will indeed happen.
The headlines are that payrolls rose 215k with 14k upward revisions to the last two months so on balance is pretty close to the 225k consensus. The unemployment rate remains at 5.3% as expected while average hourly earnings rose 0.2%MoM, which was also in line with consensus although the YoY rate was 2.1% rather than the 2.3% figure expected. Additionally, the average work week rose to 34.6 hours from 34.5.
This all seems consistent with the “further improvement” in the labour market that the Federal Reserve is seeking – jobs are being created, unemployment is falling, people are working more hours and pay is ticking higher. With average earnings likely to rise further given the shrinking slack in the labour market this should help to give the Fed confidence that inflation will rise back towards the 2% in the medium term even with the weakness in energy and commodity prices."