14 Jul 2015
Trading strategy for the week ahead - RBS
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Analysts at RBS note trading strategies across the FX board for the week ahead in its Global Currency Theme report.
Key Quotes:
“We stay neutral EUR/USD post this morning’s Greek ‘bailout’news. The more interesting directional FX stories are elsewhere for now. “
“Bank of Canada may cut rates this week, not discounted by markets. Long USD/CAD also as oil prices continue to fall.”
“RBNZ rate cuts are close to being fully priced. RBA may step up its rhetoric on currency strength. Stay short AUD/NZD.”
“Weakening global activity is running ahead of the policy response, most obviously in Asia. This suggests further weakness in the commodity currencies: Stay short AUD/USD and short NZD/USD.”
“Global activity data is softening and we expect weak demand to translate into lower commodity prices. We see the oil price falling further. Norwegian data have weakened and we see markets pricing a more aggressive policy response from Norges bank. Stay long CHF/NOK.”
“Asian regional currencies can start to ‘catch up’ with the collapsed JPY. Stay long JPY/KRW. We are most bearish regionally on MYR where a perfect negative storm brews: Long USD/MYR. INR is still our preferred Asia long: Short USD/INR.”
Key Quotes:
“We stay neutral EUR/USD post this morning’s Greek ‘bailout’news. The more interesting directional FX stories are elsewhere for now. “
“Bank of Canada may cut rates this week, not discounted by markets. Long USD/CAD also as oil prices continue to fall.”
“RBNZ rate cuts are close to being fully priced. RBA may step up its rhetoric on currency strength. Stay short AUD/NZD.”
“Weakening global activity is running ahead of the policy response, most obviously in Asia. This suggests further weakness in the commodity currencies: Stay short AUD/USD and short NZD/USD.”
“Global activity data is softening and we expect weak demand to translate into lower commodity prices. We see the oil price falling further. Norwegian data have weakened and we see markets pricing a more aggressive policy response from Norges bank. Stay long CHF/NOK.”
“Asian regional currencies can start to ‘catch up’ with the collapsed JPY. Stay long JPY/KRW. We are most bearish regionally on MYR where a perfect negative storm brews: Long USD/MYR. INR is still our preferred Asia long: Short USD/INR.”