13 Jul 2015
IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning as at 7 July 2015 - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank offered the IMM Net Speculators’ Positioning for FX markets.
Key Quotes:
"After Greeks overwhelmingly rejected creditors’ demands in the referendum held on July 5, speculators reduced their EUR short positions to 99,266 from 100,035 previously as concerns that Greece may leave the Eurozone escalated significantly. That said, the marathon of talks in Brussels led to a unanimous agreement on Greece. Following an initial spike higher this morning, EUR/USD is trading lower at the time of writing. Such price action fits into our view that as a funding currency the EUR tends to weaken when demand for risky assets improves. Assuming that Greek parliament ratifies required reforms to secure a third bailout, speculators are likely to gradually increase EUR shorts, which stood at the all time high of 226,560 back in March.
GBP net shorts rose to 22,973 fully reversing the sharp fall to 12,759 previously. We maintain relatively positive view on the GBP against the EUR and expect the cable to soften towards the end of the year as the Fed is likely to raise interest rates ahead of the BoE.
Escalation in risk aversion earlier this month was also reflected in a drop in JPY shorts to 63,629 from 78,822. Apart from the Greek saga, the rout in the Chinese stock fuelled market concerns. While drastic measures implemented by officials managed to stabilize the SHCOMP, we are not convinced that Chinese stocks are out of the woods just yet.
Prevailing uncertainty about Greece has kept CHF net positions above zero (6,121) since Apr.
The sharp fall in commodities (caused by China) weighed on both AUD and CAD with short positions rising to 22,197 (from 12,031) and to 32,268 (from 23,450) respectively."
Key Quotes:
"After Greeks overwhelmingly rejected creditors’ demands in the referendum held on July 5, speculators reduced their EUR short positions to 99,266 from 100,035 previously as concerns that Greece may leave the Eurozone escalated significantly. That said, the marathon of talks in Brussels led to a unanimous agreement on Greece. Following an initial spike higher this morning, EUR/USD is trading lower at the time of writing. Such price action fits into our view that as a funding currency the EUR tends to weaken when demand for risky assets improves. Assuming that Greek parliament ratifies required reforms to secure a third bailout, speculators are likely to gradually increase EUR shorts, which stood at the all time high of 226,560 back in March.
GBP net shorts rose to 22,973 fully reversing the sharp fall to 12,759 previously. We maintain relatively positive view on the GBP against the EUR and expect the cable to soften towards the end of the year as the Fed is likely to raise interest rates ahead of the BoE.
Escalation in risk aversion earlier this month was also reflected in a drop in JPY shorts to 63,629 from 78,822. Apart from the Greek saga, the rout in the Chinese stock fuelled market concerns. While drastic measures implemented by officials managed to stabilize the SHCOMP, we are not convinced that Chinese stocks are out of the woods just yet.
Prevailing uncertainty about Greece has kept CHF net positions above zero (6,121) since Apr.
The sharp fall in commodities (caused by China) weighed on both AUD and CAD with short positions rising to 22,197 (from 12,031) and to 32,268 (from 23,450) respectively."