1 Jul 2015
HUF could pick up pace in the near term – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - According to analysts at BAML, the bias for the Hungarian forint remains constructive.
Key Quotes
“We maintain an above-consensus view of Hungary’s growth outlook. We lower
2015 GDP to 3.5% from 3.9% after 1Q results were below our expectations, but
we keep our 2016 forecast at 2.9%”.
“The NBH signaled more easing at its 23 June meeting, but the end of the easing cycle is near. Upside inflation surprises recently led us to revise up our inflation forecast to 0.4% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016, from -0.1% and 2%. In our baseline, we see another 15bp cut to 1.35%, but note that the NBH may go slightly further”.
“We keep our relative value preference via short RON/HUF and a short PLN/HUF position, but near-term weakness due to Greece and bund volatility is a risk. We do not view the change in the central bank’s policy target instrument as negative or positive for HUF”.
Key Quotes
“We maintain an above-consensus view of Hungary’s growth outlook. We lower
2015 GDP to 3.5% from 3.9% after 1Q results were below our expectations, but
we keep our 2016 forecast at 2.9%”.
“The NBH signaled more easing at its 23 June meeting, but the end of the easing cycle is near. Upside inflation surprises recently led us to revise up our inflation forecast to 0.4% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016, from -0.1% and 2%. In our baseline, we see another 15bp cut to 1.35%, but note that the NBH may go slightly further”.
“We keep our relative value preference via short RON/HUF and a short PLN/HUF position, but near-term weakness due to Greece and bund volatility is a risk. We do not view the change in the central bank’s policy target instrument as negative or positive for HUF”.