18 Jun 2015
EUR/USD: Adopting a cautious sell-on-upticks approach – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team expects any sustained euro up move as difficult and expect 1.1534 to cap the upside for EUR/USD, and further maintains a cautious sell approach on the pair.
Key Quotes
“The dollar is in a soft spot. Today, the focus probably returns to the Greek debt crisis. We see little chance of an agreement. A risk‐off reaction in case of an outright failure might trigger strange moves on all markets, including in EUR/USD. That said, it is difficult to see a new, sustained euro up‐leg in case of a Greek default (or worse). USD/JPY might be ripe for a further correction, especially if global sentiment on risk deteriorates.”
“In a longer term perspective, EUR/USD trades in the 1.0819 ‐ 1.1386/1.1467 consolidation range A topside break would be a first warning signal for USD bulls. We maintain our cautious sell on up‐ticks approach for return action lower in this range as we don’t see a real change in the global picture, but we are well aware of the risks.”
“The 1.1534 February correction top remains our line in the sand to maintain a USD positive bias MT term. We assume that this level will hold. However, stop‐loss protection is warranted to defend a break, for whatever reason.”
Key Quotes
“The dollar is in a soft spot. Today, the focus probably returns to the Greek debt crisis. We see little chance of an agreement. A risk‐off reaction in case of an outright failure might trigger strange moves on all markets, including in EUR/USD. That said, it is difficult to see a new, sustained euro up‐leg in case of a Greek default (or worse). USD/JPY might be ripe for a further correction, especially if global sentiment on risk deteriorates.”
“In a longer term perspective, EUR/USD trades in the 1.0819 ‐ 1.1386/1.1467 consolidation range A topside break would be a first warning signal for USD bulls. We maintain our cautious sell on up‐ticks approach for return action lower in this range as we don’t see a real change in the global picture, but we are well aware of the risks.”
“The 1.1534 February correction top remains our line in the sand to maintain a USD positive bias MT term. We assume that this level will hold. However, stop‐loss protection is warranted to defend a break, for whatever reason.”