18 Jun 2015
Key events ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the key events coming up throughout the forthcoming timezones.
Key Quotes:
"Today starts with Chinese property prices, where we can see how much of a recovery is being driven by the equity bubble: quite a lot in bigger cities, I would expect, but not any kind of a sustainable basis."
"Then we have UK retail sales, which are seen down MoM after the huge gains made in April. We saw a large upside surprise in average earnings yesterday at 2.7% YoY vs. expected 2.1% led by construction at 5.3% (housing boom) and finance at 4.6% (ARIP) but with wholesale/retail/restaurants also at a surprisingly decent 3.4% (actual wage growth), yet the public sector up only 1.2% (austerity); as such any unexpected strength in retail spending will likely benefit GBP further, already at 1.5846 this morning, as the market starts to expect the recent 9-0 BOE vote to shift in a more hawkish direction ahead. But is that really compatible with deeper fiscal austerity and even a potential shift to permanent budget surpluses?"
"In the US we then have the current account and CPI, where the consensus is a 0.5% MoM headline print and 0.2% core, equivalent to 0.1% YoY headline and 1.8% core, respectively. The irony is that release means less than 24 hours after the Fed, the market has the option to already reassess its stance, should we get an upside surprise, for example."
"The US then also has initial claims, still hovering below a very healthy 280K level, and real average weekly earnings (up 2.3% YoY in April mainly due to low inflation), as well as the more important Philly Fed index."
"Back in Asia we also have Bank Indonesia making a rate decision. With inflation so sticky there appears no expectation of a cut from 7.50%, despite the fact that the economy is continuing to lose momentum. IDR will be relieved if so, still hovering close to record lows vs. USD."
Key Quotes:
"Today starts with Chinese property prices, where we can see how much of a recovery is being driven by the equity bubble: quite a lot in bigger cities, I would expect, but not any kind of a sustainable basis."
"Then we have UK retail sales, which are seen down MoM after the huge gains made in April. We saw a large upside surprise in average earnings yesterday at 2.7% YoY vs. expected 2.1% led by construction at 5.3% (housing boom) and finance at 4.6% (ARIP) but with wholesale/retail/restaurants also at a surprisingly decent 3.4% (actual wage growth), yet the public sector up only 1.2% (austerity); as such any unexpected strength in retail spending will likely benefit GBP further, already at 1.5846 this morning, as the market starts to expect the recent 9-0 BOE vote to shift in a more hawkish direction ahead. But is that really compatible with deeper fiscal austerity and even a potential shift to permanent budget surpluses?"
"In the US we then have the current account and CPI, where the consensus is a 0.5% MoM headline print and 0.2% core, equivalent to 0.1% YoY headline and 1.8% core, respectively. The irony is that release means less than 24 hours after the Fed, the market has the option to already reassess its stance, should we get an upside surprise, for example."
"The US then also has initial claims, still hovering below a very healthy 280K level, and real average weekly earnings (up 2.3% YoY in April mainly due to low inflation), as well as the more important Philly Fed index."
"Back in Asia we also have Bank Indonesia making a rate decision. With inflation so sticky there appears no expectation of a cut from 7.50%, despite the fact that the economy is continuing to lose momentum. IDR will be relieved if so, still hovering close to record lows vs. USD."