12 Jun 2015
US Michigan consumer confidence risks a stronger rebound – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Previewing the US data releases in the day – US PPI inflation, University of Michigan Consumer Confidence, the KBC Bank Research Team believes that the consumer confidence data risks an above consensus rebound.
Key Quotes
“In the US, PPI inflation is forecast to have rebounded by 0.4% M/M following a 0.4% M/M decline in April. As a result, the downtrend in the annual rate is forecast to have ended with the consensus looking for a pick-up from -1.3% Y/Y to -1.1% Y/Y. Core PPI, excluding food and energy price, is forecast to have increased by 0.1% M/M, while the annual rate is expected to have slowed to 0.7% Y/Y from 0.8% Y/Y. Besides a rebound in energy prices, we also expect a pick-up in prices in the services sector after the post-Easter weakness in April. Therefore, we see upside risks for the core PPI.”
“Finally, University of Michigan consumer confidence is expected to show a limited rebound in June following a drop of more than five months in May. The consensus is looking for a rebound from 90.7 to 91.2, but we believe that the risks are for a stronger rebound. Positive labour market developments and an improving housing market are supportive.”
Key Quotes
“In the US, PPI inflation is forecast to have rebounded by 0.4% M/M following a 0.4% M/M decline in April. As a result, the downtrend in the annual rate is forecast to have ended with the consensus looking for a pick-up from -1.3% Y/Y to -1.1% Y/Y. Core PPI, excluding food and energy price, is forecast to have increased by 0.1% M/M, while the annual rate is expected to have slowed to 0.7% Y/Y from 0.8% Y/Y. Besides a rebound in energy prices, we also expect a pick-up in prices in the services sector after the post-Easter weakness in April. Therefore, we see upside risks for the core PPI.”
“Finally, University of Michigan consumer confidence is expected to show a limited rebound in June following a drop of more than five months in May. The consensus is looking for a rebound from 90.7 to 91.2, but we believe that the risks are for a stronger rebound. Positive labour market developments and an improving housing market are supportive.”