19 May 2015
Not expecting bullish USD catalyst this week – BNP Paribas
FXStreet (Bali) - The FX Strategy Team at BNP Paribas is not expecting data and news flow to provide a bullish USD catalyst in the week ahead.
Key Quotes
"BNP Paribas Positioning Analysis signals EURUSD positioning is at its lightest level since July 2014, just before the start of the EUR collapse. However, we do not expect data and news flow to provide a bullish USD catalyst in the week ahead."
"Our economists expect Wednesday’s FOMC minutes for the April meeting to focus on discussion of whether weakness in activity data and March jobs numbers was due to temporary factors or reflected more sustained vulnerabilities."
"The FOMC minutes are likely to reflect a strong preference for a wait-and-see approach, which is unlikely to catalyse markets to bring forward pricing for rate hikes. Consistent with our expectation of a ‘wait-and-see’ message, Chicago Fed president Evans was quoted this morning commenting that the Fed are evaluating rate increases on a meeting by meeting basis."
"On the data front, later in the week we look for soft readings in April CPI headline and core y/y rates. We remain positioned for USD recovery (vs JPY and CHF) via derivatives recommendations in our portfolio of trade recommendations."
Key Quotes
"BNP Paribas Positioning Analysis signals EURUSD positioning is at its lightest level since July 2014, just before the start of the EUR collapse. However, we do not expect data and news flow to provide a bullish USD catalyst in the week ahead."
"Our economists expect Wednesday’s FOMC minutes for the April meeting to focus on discussion of whether weakness in activity data and March jobs numbers was due to temporary factors or reflected more sustained vulnerabilities."
"The FOMC minutes are likely to reflect a strong preference for a wait-and-see approach, which is unlikely to catalyse markets to bring forward pricing for rate hikes. Consistent with our expectation of a ‘wait-and-see’ message, Chicago Fed president Evans was quoted this morning commenting that the Fed are evaluating rate increases on a meeting by meeting basis."
"On the data front, later in the week we look for soft readings in April CPI headline and core y/y rates. We remain positioned for USD recovery (vs JPY and CHF) via derivatives recommendations in our portfolio of trade recommendations."