13 May 2015
Forex market reaction post the US retail sales data release – SG
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, summarizes the Forex market reaction post the release of a flat US retail sales data, and further suggests remaining short GBP/SEK.
Key Quotes
“I do, as an aside, wish that the US released a volume figure for retail sales rather than just a cash one, leaving us waiting for personal consumption for a fuller picture. Still, we get what we get. A y/y increase of 0.9 thanks to a flat m/m retail sales and a revision to 1.1 in March. Ex-autos +o.1. Control group's better, but still... Americans remain cautious, using real wage increases to cut debt, or spending on something outside retail sales.”
“It's only one (more) number and one that is prone to revision... But the market reaction's been violent. More Euro shorts flushed, dollar weakness across the board with EMFX and commo-FX the really big winners.”
“How a slow-mo US consumer bounce and a slower Chinese economy helps commodity exporters is beyond me, but as I wrote this morning, the context (small bounce relative to huge fall in prices) matters.”
“This probably stops the bond rout. Probably sends money in search of yield. I like gilts. Short GBP/SEK please or just short GBP and EUR and CHF vs PLN and SEK and NOK.”
Key Quotes
“I do, as an aside, wish that the US released a volume figure for retail sales rather than just a cash one, leaving us waiting for personal consumption for a fuller picture. Still, we get what we get. A y/y increase of 0.9 thanks to a flat m/m retail sales and a revision to 1.1 in March. Ex-autos +o.1. Control group's better, but still... Americans remain cautious, using real wage increases to cut debt, or spending on something outside retail sales.”
“It's only one (more) number and one that is prone to revision... But the market reaction's been violent. More Euro shorts flushed, dollar weakness across the board with EMFX and commo-FX the really big winners.”
“How a slow-mo US consumer bounce and a slower Chinese economy helps commodity exporters is beyond me, but as I wrote this morning, the context (small bounce relative to huge fall in prices) matters.”
“This probably stops the bond rout. Probably sends money in search of yield. I like gilts. Short GBP/SEK please or just short GBP and EUR and CHF vs PLN and SEK and NOK.”