8 May 2015
UK Election: Early results in line with exit polls, big Cons win - TDS
FXStreet (Bali) - Early UK election results are lining up with the exit polls, pointing to a big swing toward the Conservatives compared to the pre-election polling, notes the TDS Research Team.
Key Quotes
"We’ve seen 312 of 650 seats reported so far, and from what we’ve seen it looks like the results are lining up with the exit polls, which pointed to a big swing toward the Conservatives compared to the pre-election polling. It’s still going to be some time before we have a better idea of how many seats the Conservatives end up with, but for now the bigger themes of the evening have been SNP’s massive win in Scotland, and the LibDems losing a huge number of seats."
"If the Conservatives manage to win something close to the 316 seats that have been projected, then David Cameron will almost certainly be the next Prime Minister. If it had been a closer race, then we could have seen a situation where Miliband became PM as he would be the one able to gain more support from the smaller parties. But if the Conservatives end up with 30% more seats than Labour, then the questions of legitimacy would just be too great to overcome."
"The question now will be who is willing to support the Conservatives in order to form a government. The LibDems are going to be a big question mark, so the Conservatives may have to rely on support from DUP instead. It wouldn’t likely be a formal coalition with DUP actually taking ministerial posts, but would be a supply and confidence agreement instead with a minority Conservative government. But with Labour posting such a weak showing, they will likely not be interested in even trying to trigger new elections any time soon even if they could."
"The good news here for markets is that with the Conservatives coming so close to the 323 seats required to form a majority, instead of the 270 seats that they were tracking into the election, and with Labour having done so much more poorly, the negotiations to get to the 323 seats required should be much quicker than we had feared, and it should only be a matter of days instead of weeks."
"So far overnight we’ve seen GBP surge from around 1.5250 before the exit polls to around 1.54 through the early overnight session, and has been testing resistance at 1.55 as the early seat been announced, confirming the outcome from the exit polls. So today should be a good day for UK markets in the end, with a much more market-friendly outcome than anyone had been tracking."
Key Quotes
"We’ve seen 312 of 650 seats reported so far, and from what we’ve seen it looks like the results are lining up with the exit polls, which pointed to a big swing toward the Conservatives compared to the pre-election polling. It’s still going to be some time before we have a better idea of how many seats the Conservatives end up with, but for now the bigger themes of the evening have been SNP’s massive win in Scotland, and the LibDems losing a huge number of seats."
"If the Conservatives manage to win something close to the 316 seats that have been projected, then David Cameron will almost certainly be the next Prime Minister. If it had been a closer race, then we could have seen a situation where Miliband became PM as he would be the one able to gain more support from the smaller parties. But if the Conservatives end up with 30% more seats than Labour, then the questions of legitimacy would just be too great to overcome."
"The question now will be who is willing to support the Conservatives in order to form a government. The LibDems are going to be a big question mark, so the Conservatives may have to rely on support from DUP instead. It wouldn’t likely be a formal coalition with DUP actually taking ministerial posts, but would be a supply and confidence agreement instead with a minority Conservative government. But with Labour posting such a weak showing, they will likely not be interested in even trying to trigger new elections any time soon even if they could."
"The good news here for markets is that with the Conservatives coming so close to the 323 seats required to form a majority, instead of the 270 seats that they were tracking into the election, and with Labour having done so much more poorly, the negotiations to get to the 323 seats required should be much quicker than we had feared, and it should only be a matter of days instead of weeks."
"So far overnight we’ve seen GBP surge from around 1.5250 before the exit polls to around 1.54 through the early overnight session, and has been testing resistance at 1.55 as the early seat been announced, confirming the outcome from the exit polls. So today should be a good day for UK markets in the end, with a much more market-friendly outcome than anyone had been tracking."