8 May 2015
Key events coming up for end of week - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted the key data events to round up the week.
Key Quotes:
"Amazingly, the pre-payrolls volatility may not be over yet. The UK general election exit poll suggests the Conservative party is set to win 316 seats vs. 239 for Labour, which has seen GBP soar to 1.5389. Meanwhile, in Greece Finance Minister Varoufakis has said that the government will go “down to the wire” in talks with creditors; Bloomberg reports this morning that anonymous officials are saying that Greece needs to reach an agreement next week or risk the ECB imposing tighter liquidity rules. i.e., the dreaded haircuts on Greek banks’ collateral. (Notably, Greek stocks and bonds jumped yesterday on the view that as the deadline approaches a deal can indeed be struck.)"
"Today also has the BOJ’s April 7-8 policy minutes, where we can see how close they did or didn’t come to initiating yet more QE (underlining the point that the fundamentals haven’t changed)."
"After that we have the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), where we get to see some finessing of the statement from the last rate cut. Surely the RBA will need to make clear that there is still a retained easing bias to prevent further upward pressure on AUD? One would certainly hope that the world’s best-paid central banker understands that dynamic by now."
"Then we have German industrial production (consensus: 0.4% MoM) and the ECB’s Likanen and Constancio speaking, while the UK has Halifax house prices and the monthly trade balance, though the election will almost certainly overshadow those data points."
"And only then do we get to US payrolls, seen at 228K vs. just 126K last month, and with the unemployment rate edging down a tick to 5.4%, and average hourly earnings seen rising 0.2% to a 2.3% YoY rate. It goes without saying that there is still room for some major market action after that release, especially given the downside surprise last month and the subsequent drop in USD."
"China then releases trade data at some point with expectations of a bounce in the surplus from USD3.1bn last month (consensus: USD39.6bn); CPI is also out on Saturday, seen edging up to 1.6% YoY. Any downside surprises would suggest more pressure on CNY and for more PBOC stimulus."
"So, all in all payrolls may have to share top billing this month: Happy Friday, folks!"
Key Quotes:
"Amazingly, the pre-payrolls volatility may not be over yet. The UK general election exit poll suggests the Conservative party is set to win 316 seats vs. 239 for Labour, which has seen GBP soar to 1.5389. Meanwhile, in Greece Finance Minister Varoufakis has said that the government will go “down to the wire” in talks with creditors; Bloomberg reports this morning that anonymous officials are saying that Greece needs to reach an agreement next week or risk the ECB imposing tighter liquidity rules. i.e., the dreaded haircuts on Greek banks’ collateral. (Notably, Greek stocks and bonds jumped yesterday on the view that as the deadline approaches a deal can indeed be struck.)"
"Today also has the BOJ’s April 7-8 policy minutes, where we can see how close they did or didn’t come to initiating yet more QE (underlining the point that the fundamentals haven’t changed)."
"After that we have the RBA’s Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP), where we get to see some finessing of the statement from the last rate cut. Surely the RBA will need to make clear that there is still a retained easing bias to prevent further upward pressure on AUD? One would certainly hope that the world’s best-paid central banker understands that dynamic by now."
"Then we have German industrial production (consensus: 0.4% MoM) and the ECB’s Likanen and Constancio speaking, while the UK has Halifax house prices and the monthly trade balance, though the election will almost certainly overshadow those data points."
"And only then do we get to US payrolls, seen at 228K vs. just 126K last month, and with the unemployment rate edging down a tick to 5.4%, and average hourly earnings seen rising 0.2% to a 2.3% YoY rate. It goes without saying that there is still room for some major market action after that release, especially given the downside surprise last month and the subsequent drop in USD."
"China then releases trade data at some point with expectations of a bounce in the surplus from USD3.1bn last month (consensus: USD39.6bn); CPI is also out on Saturday, seen edging up to 1.6% YoY. Any downside surprises would suggest more pressure on CNY and for more PBOC stimulus."
"So, all in all payrolls may have to share top billing this month: Happy Friday, folks!"