8 May 2015
Off the charts estiames in favour of Conservatives - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Richard Kelly, Head of Global Strategy at TD Securities and noted that the first exit poll for the UK general election provided an off the charts estimate for Conservatives winning 316 seats, nowhere close to the 275-280 seats they were tracking in early polls.
Key Quotes:
"With market shorthand being “Conservative good, Labour bad,” that saw cable surge 1% on the news, likely further bolstered by how decisive it suggested a race expected to be very indecisive could turn out to be."
"This first exit poll forecast Conservatives would win 316 seats, current coalition partner Liberal Democrats only 10, Labour 239 seats, UKIP 2 seats, and SNP winning 58 of the 59 seats in Scotland."
"326 is needed for a mathematical majority, 323 is needed for a de facto majority given Sinn Fein do not take their seats. While a very strong showing for the Tories, this only gives the current coalition 326 seats, which would still suggest a tight contest to see if they actually deliver that number of seats, though there should be another 9-10 DUP members that could support such a coalition.
"So the take away message here is that we have a chance for a much stronger Conservative showing than expected and perhaps a chance that by around 3am London time, we have a good idea if we are really moving in that direction with the actual results."
Key Quotes:
"With market shorthand being “Conservative good, Labour bad,” that saw cable surge 1% on the news, likely further bolstered by how decisive it suggested a race expected to be very indecisive could turn out to be."
"This first exit poll forecast Conservatives would win 316 seats, current coalition partner Liberal Democrats only 10, Labour 239 seats, UKIP 2 seats, and SNP winning 58 of the 59 seats in Scotland."
"326 is needed for a mathematical majority, 323 is needed for a de facto majority given Sinn Fein do not take their seats. While a very strong showing for the Tories, this only gives the current coalition 326 seats, which would still suggest a tight contest to see if they actually deliver that number of seats, though there should be another 9-10 DUP members that could support such a coalition.
"So the take away message here is that we have a chance for a much stronger Conservative showing than expected and perhaps a chance that by around 3am London time, we have a good idea if we are really moving in that direction with the actual results."