7 May 2015
US April unemployment rate to tick lower– Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Research Analysts at Nomura share their forecast for the US employment rate and average hourly earnings to be released tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“On a rounded basis, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5% in March. Based on the decline in the insured unemployment between the household survey weeks in April and March, and our expectation for better job growth in April, we forecast that the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.4% from 5.5%.”
“Given that the unemployment rate was 5.465% in March on an unrounded basis, it lowers the bar for a drop to 5.4% in April.”
“If our forecast proves correct, the unemployment rate would only be 0.2pp above the upper bound of the central tendency of the FOMC’s longer-run unemployment forecast of 5.0-5.2%.”
“Average hourly earnings: We forecast that average hourly earnings for total private employees rose by 0.28% m-o-m again in April as we expect the improvement in the labor market over the past year and shortage of skilled workers in certain high skilled industries to continue to put upward pressure on wages.”
“Note that the first calendar day of April falling on a Wednesday lends some slight downside risk to average hourly earnings in April.”
Key Quotes
“On a rounded basis, the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5% in March. Based on the decline in the insured unemployment between the household survey weeks in April and March, and our expectation for better job growth in April, we forecast that the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.4% from 5.5%.”
“Given that the unemployment rate was 5.465% in March on an unrounded basis, it lowers the bar for a drop to 5.4% in April.”
“If our forecast proves correct, the unemployment rate would only be 0.2pp above the upper bound of the central tendency of the FOMC’s longer-run unemployment forecast of 5.0-5.2%.”
“Average hourly earnings: We forecast that average hourly earnings for total private employees rose by 0.28% m-o-m again in April as we expect the improvement in the labor market over the past year and shortage of skilled workers in certain high skilled industries to continue to put upward pressure on wages.”
“Note that the first calendar day of April falling on a Wednesday lends some slight downside risk to average hourly earnings in April.”