6 May 2015
GBP outlook into UK elections and beyond – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at ING gives the short, medium and long-term outlook for GBP heading into the UK elections.
Key Quotes
“With the UK General Election just a day away, opinion polls show that no single party will win enough seats to govern alone. Both the Conservatives and Labour would prefer to work with just the Liberal Democrats, but the fragmented nature of UK politics means this might not be enough. There is the growing threat of the need for a second election later in the year meaning political drift for the UK. This might not be as bad for markets as it sounds.”
“For GBP implications, different time horizons offer different GBP prospects. In our view, over the very short term, a hung parliament would be the worst outcome for GBP as the full degree of uncertainty would remain in place, while a Conservative-Lib Dem minority coalition would be the best outcome.”
“Over the medium term, a Conservative government would mean challenging prospects for GBP given the spectre of an EU referendum.”
“Over the long term, the best outcome is a Conservative-led government and the UK staying in the EU.”
Key Quotes
“With the UK General Election just a day away, opinion polls show that no single party will win enough seats to govern alone. Both the Conservatives and Labour would prefer to work with just the Liberal Democrats, but the fragmented nature of UK politics means this might not be enough. There is the growing threat of the need for a second election later in the year meaning political drift for the UK. This might not be as bad for markets as it sounds.”
“For GBP implications, different time horizons offer different GBP prospects. In our view, over the very short term, a hung parliament would be the worst outcome for GBP as the full degree of uncertainty would remain in place, while a Conservative-Lib Dem minority coalition would be the best outcome.”
“Over the medium term, a Conservative government would mean challenging prospects for GBP given the spectre of an EU referendum.”
“Over the long term, the best outcome is a Conservative-led government and the UK staying in the EU.”