6 May 2015
Will a strong ADP report stabilize the dollar? – BBH
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Brown Brothers Harriman, note that the key issue today is whether the ADP estimate of US private sector employment growth in April will be sufficient to fuel a dollar recovery.
Key Quotes
“Yesterday's trade balance blowout prompted downward revisions to Q1 GDP into negative territory. And although the services ISM was better than expected, including an uptick in employment, many investors and the media focused on the Q1 implications.”
“The consensus is for the ADP estimate to be around 200k, a small improvement from the March report of 189k. It had over-estimated the initial BLS report by 60k.”
“The March ADP report was the weakest since January 2014, and a 200k rise now would be the second weakest report since then.”
“We suspect that an ADP report in line with the 6- and 12-month averages (235-238K) would help put a floor under the dollar.”
Key Quotes
“Yesterday's trade balance blowout prompted downward revisions to Q1 GDP into negative territory. And although the services ISM was better than expected, including an uptick in employment, many investors and the media focused on the Q1 implications.”
“The consensus is for the ADP estimate to be around 200k, a small improvement from the March report of 189k. It had over-estimated the initial BLS report by 60k.”
“The March ADP report was the weakest since January 2014, and a 200k rise now would be the second weakest report since then.”
“We suspect that an ADP report in line with the 6- and 12-month averages (235-238K) would help put a floor under the dollar.”