29 Apr 2015
NZ trade deficit expected - Capital Economics
FXStreet (Bali) - Paul Dales, Chief Australia/NZ Economist at Capital Economics, expects the NZ trade balance non-seasonally adjusted to have swung into deficit in March.
Key Quotes
"After recording a surplus in the first two months of the year, we estimate that the New Zealand non-seasonally adjusted trade balance (23.45 BST Tuesday) swung back into deficit in March, to the tune of around $100m."
"After seasonal adjustment, the deterioration should be even larger, from a deficit of $377m in February to around $700m in March. We expect that the lagged effect of the previous decline in dairy prices will contribute to an outright fall in seasonally-adjusted export values. Meanwhile, and despite a price-related drop in oil imports, overall imports probably rose."
Key Quotes
"After recording a surplus in the first two months of the year, we estimate that the New Zealand non-seasonally adjusted trade balance (23.45 BST Tuesday) swung back into deficit in March, to the tune of around $100m."
"After seasonal adjustment, the deterioration should be even larger, from a deficit of $377m in February to around $700m in March. We expect that the lagged effect of the previous decline in dairy prices will contribute to an outright fall in seasonally-adjusted export values. Meanwhile, and despite a price-related drop in oil imports, overall imports probably rose."