28 Apr 2015
NZD/USD might rise towards 0.7750 ahead of RBNZ – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Imre Speizer of Westpac, believes that NZD/USD might rise towards 0.7750 ahead of RBNZ but selloff lower post the meeting.
Key Quotes
“RBNZ Assistant Gov. McDermott’s speech on inflation last week signalled a probable shift in stance to a conditional easing bias. If the RBNZ’s one-page press release makes that explicit, the NZD market will probably react. If it’s implicit, then reactions should be muted.”
“Another source of market volatility could be the RBNZ’s rhetoric regarding the elevated NZD TWI. It is over 3% higher than the RBNZ previously forecast and will surely be worthy of comment.”
“The US data calendar also has the potential to buffet NZD/USD. GDP and the FOMC meeting will be closely watched, the former containing downside risks, but the latter unlikely to surprise given the first rate hike is priced for December.”
“Distilling all of the above, we expect NZD/USD to rise towards 0.7750 before the RBNZ, and then selloff towards 0.7550 in response. We thus hold a neutral bias for the week.”
Key Quotes
“RBNZ Assistant Gov. McDermott’s speech on inflation last week signalled a probable shift in stance to a conditional easing bias. If the RBNZ’s one-page press release makes that explicit, the NZD market will probably react. If it’s implicit, then reactions should be muted.”
“Another source of market volatility could be the RBNZ’s rhetoric regarding the elevated NZD TWI. It is over 3% higher than the RBNZ previously forecast and will surely be worthy of comment.”
“The US data calendar also has the potential to buffet NZD/USD. GDP and the FOMC meeting will be closely watched, the former containing downside risks, but the latter unlikely to surprise given the first rate hike is priced for December.”
“Distilling all of the above, we expect NZD/USD to rise towards 0.7750 before the RBNZ, and then selloff towards 0.7550 in response. We thus hold a neutral bias for the week.”